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India's Business Activity Reaches Four-Month High but Employment Growth Stalls

Stronger services demand and improving export orders supported economic activity in October, although businesses remained cautious about expanding their workforces.

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India's Business Activity Reaches Four-Month High but Employment Growth Stalls
Sintesi

India's private sector recorded its fastest expansion in four months, but limited hiring suggests that stronger business activity has yet to translate into broad employment growth.

Article contextKey signals, sources and related coverage
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India
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India's private-sector economy expanded at its fastest pace in four months during October 2026, according to preliminary purchasing managers' data released on 23 October.

The HSBC Flash India Composite Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, increased to 56.7 from 55.9 in September.

The reading exceeded the 56.1 forecast by economists surveyed by Reuters and remained comfortably above the 50-point threshold indicating expansion.

The improvement was driven principally by the services sector, where stronger orders supported increased business activity.

The services PMI rose to 56.2 from 55.2 in September, reflecting stronger operating conditions across the sector. Manufacturing remains in expansion territory Manufacturing activity also continued expanding, although the sector's headline PMI declined slightly to 54.9 from 55.1.

The difference between manufacturing and services suggests that India's economic momentum was not distributed equally across industries.

Export demand provided additional support.

Overall new export orders increased at their fastest pace in six months, although the improvement was concentrated among manufacturers rather than service providers.

International demand remains important for businesses seeking to diversify their customer bases and strengthen revenue opportunities. Employment fails to match output growth Despite the stronger business environment, employment growth was notably subdued.

Services-sector employment remained unchanged, ending a nine-month period of hiring growth.

Manufacturing businesses reported only limited recruitment.

Survey respondents indicated that existing staffing levels were generally sufficient to manage current workloads.

Backlogs of outstanding work also declined rapidly, suggesting that companies were able to process orders without substantially expanding their workforces.

This presents an important economic question: whether sustained business growth will eventually encourage employers to increase recruitment.

For an economy with a large working-age population, employment opportunities remain central to the wider distribution of economic gains. Inflation pressures ease The survey also provided encouraging signals concerning business costs.

Input-cost inflation declined to its lowest level in almost a year, while increases in selling prices were the weakest since March 2025.

Slower cost growth may help businesses protect margins and reduce the pressure to raise prices.

However, lower inflation rates do not mean that the prices of goods and services are necessarily declining. Outlook remains positive but uneven Business confidence improved to its highest level since May, although it remained below the average recorded during 2026.

The combination of stronger orders, improving activity and restrained recruitment suggests that businesses are prioritizing productivity and operational efficiency.

Future employment surveys and official economic data will help establish whether the latest acceleration can generate broader benefits.

India's October figures indicate renewed economic strength, but the gap between output growth and job creation remains an important issue for policymakers.

Ultimo aggiornamento: 24 ottobre 2026 alle ore 09:34

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